Right, well that was intense…
Having had a couple of weeks for a brief rest and catch up on non-political things, here are my thoughts on the election.
Thank You
In Ashbourne division, 474 people voted Green, placing us 3rd, narrowly beating Labour. Thank you so much to everyone who placed their trust in me to push for Green values and policies at County Council.
I believe I put in an energetic and positive campaign. Much of my effort was focused on the leaflet, which I wrote and designed myself. Thank you to my friends and colleagues Jacqui, Andy, Lucia, Jess and Caro who helped me deliver around 4500 of them. I hope that voters recognised it as a genuine and forward-looking message that I remain committed to. I've learned a lot for next time and I hope to build on this foundation to become a serious contender for this seat.
Despite not being elected, I will continue to strive towards this goal by working with the Dales Greens team to keep growing our numbers of members, voters, and councillors across the District. I’ll also keep trying to influence the policies of the current council through party and non-party campaigns.
Post-match analysis
Here’s how people voted this election, versus the previous one.
One conclusion I draw is that here, as in many other places, the headline narrative of ‘conservative gains’ gives the impression of the electorate shifting to the right, but all that has actually happened is that UKIP have disappeared from the landscape and those voters have turned (back?) to the Conservatives. Meanwhile, the cumulative number of people voting for ‘progressive’ parties increases.
The generally ‘progressive’ vote is split multiple ways, while the ‘conservative’ vote is now united under the Conservatives. This ensures that the Conservatives can continue winning large majorities on around 40% of the national vote.
We clearly need Proportional Representation (PR) to fix our broken democracy, bring disenfranchised voters back on board and elect representatives that actually represent the will of voters (this is a core Green policy).
In a lot of places, this leads to discussion about ‘pacts’ between opposition parties. This is something the Greens enthusiastically support – on condition that there is a candidate we can broadly endorse. Indeed we did exactly this in 3 of the 6 Dales divisions, where we endorsed Peter O’Brien of Labour in Bakewell and Claire Cadogan of the Liberal Democrats in Derwent, in return for a clear run for our candidate Neil Buttle in Dovedale. None of these candidates won this time, but we ran tight races in all and, judging by their statements afterward, clearly rattled the Conservatives.
This is not a blank cheque; we already know Peter from his work on the District Council, and we chatted with Claire and scrutinised her manifesto. These were good candidates who align with us on important things, and we were happy to support them.
Here in Ashbourne division, there is no opposition party in clear contention to overcome the Conservative majority. It requires someone to make a breakthrough before the debate is even had, and I want to be that someone. But how?
Only 43.5% of voters filled in a ballot in this election. In a general election this is more like 70%. Let’s not be unrealistic and imagine that all the non-voting 56.5% can be persuaded to vote Green, but there are huge numbers of voters here, many of whom vote in general elections.
We know this is possible – in 2018 & 2019 I worked for Dave Wells’ successful campaign in Duffield to be elected to Amber Valley District Council. In 2019 Dave won a thumping majority with 62.9% of the total vote, on a higher than usual local election turnout of 55%. Look at these charts from that election and the two before. Does it look so different to Ashbourne?
We can see that this doesn’t happen overnight. We worked hard in 2018 and 2019, posting multiple leaflets, knocking on every door and talking to as many voters as possible. We worked hard to get to a position in 2018 where voters believed we *could* win, then we worked hard again to make sure we *did* win. If anything, 2018 was a more significant turning point than 2019. We adapted to what voters told us, not by changing our principles but by talking to people in their own language.
On the one hand, we don’t have friendly national media or generations of voting instincts to put wind in our sails, on the other, we bring something genuine and new. Many people who vote (or don’t vote) out of habit are hankering for a positive alternative. Those big grey, blue and red wedges are a lot more fragile than most people think.
We clearly won over voters from all parties and none, by giving a clear & positive message and convincing people of our capability & integrity. Conservative voters recognise the need for conservation, Labour voters can see how our policies tackle unfairness & inequality and Lib Dem voters appreciate our consistent stances on electoral reform and internationalism. We have this wide appeal not by telling different voters different things, but by having principles we stand by and demonstrating integrity.
Another important point: Amber Valley Greens went on to win a county seat in 2021, making Gez Kinsella the first Green on Derbyshire County Council. Success breeds success.
It’s a long hard road, but I’m up for it. I will need your help though. My name might be on the ballot next time, but if I’m elected it will need to be as a result of a team effort.